[Congressional Bills 119th Congress]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
[H.R. 4302 Introduced in House (IH)]
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119th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 4302
To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to
precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United
States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for
other purposes.
_______________________________________________________________________
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
July 7, 2025
Mr. Obernolte (for himself, Mr. Fong, and Mr. Whitesides) introduced
the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Science,
Space, and Technology
_______________________________________________________________________
A BILL
To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to
precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United
States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for
other purposes.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the
United States of America in Congress assembled,
SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.
This Act may be cited as the ``Improving Atmospheric River
Forecasts Act''.
SEC. 2. SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTING PILOT PROJECTS.
(a) Improving Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts.--Subsection (h)
of section 1762 of the Food Security Act of 1985 (15 U.S.C. 8521) is
amended to read as follows:
``(h) Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting Pilot Projects.--
``(1) Establishment.--The Under Secretary shall establish
at least one pilot project within the U.S. Weather Research
Program of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to support
improved subseasonal to seasonal precipitation forecasts for
water management in the western United States.
``(2) Objectives.--In carrying out this subsection, the
Under Secretary shall ensure that a pilot project under
paragraph (1) addresses key science challenges to improving
forecasts and developing related products described in
subsection (c) for water management in the western United
States, including the following:
``(A) Improving model resolution, both horizontal
and vertical, to resolve issues associated with
mountainous terrain, such as intensity of precipitation
and relative fraction of rain versus snow
precipitation.
``(B) Improving fidelity in modeling of--
``(i) the atmospheric boundary layer in
mountainous regions; and
``(ii) atmospheric rivers.
``(C) Resolving challenges in predicting winter
atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, including
periods of blocked versus unblocked flow over the
eastern North Pacific Ocean and western United States.
``(D) Advancing scientific understanding of the
roles of atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to seasonal
precipitation, and developing tools to predict periods
of active or inactive atmospheric river landfalls and
inland penetration over the western United States.
``(3) Activities.--A pilot project under this subsection
shall be carried out in coordination with the Assistant
Administrator for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research and the Director of the National Weather Service and
include activities that carry out the following:
``(A) Best implement recommendations of the
National Weather Service's 2019 Report, entitled
`Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans
for the Twenty-First Century'.
``(B) Achieve measurable objectives for operational
forecast improvement.
``(C) Engage with, and leverage the resources of,
institutions of higher education (as such term is
defined in section 101 of the Higher Education Act of
1965 (20 U.S.C. 1001)) with experience in western
precipitation science, as well as entities within the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in
existence as of the date of the enactment of this
subsection, including the Western Regional Climate
Center and the National Centers for Environmental
Information.
``(4) Authorization of appropriations.--From amounts made
available to Operations, Research, and Facilities at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is
authorized to be appropriated $15,000,000 for each of fiscal
years 2026 through 2030 to carry out this subsection.
``(5) Sunset.--The authority under this subsection shall
terminate on the date that is five years after the date of the
enactment of this subsection.''.
SEC. 3. ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM.
(a) In General.--The Under Secretary, in collaboration with the
United States weather industry and academic partners, shall establish
an atmospheric river forecast improvement program (in this section
referred to as the ``program'').
(b) Goal.--The goal of the program shall be to reduce the loss of
life and property and economic losses from atmospheric rivers through
the research, development, and extension of accurate, effective, and
actionable forecasts and warnings, including by carrying out the
following:
(1) Establishing atmospheric river forecast skill metrics
that include assessing the benefits of dynamical modeling, data
assimilation, and machine learning improvements in the
probabilistic forecasts of landfall location, extreme wind and
precipitation, and cascading impacts.
(2) Developing an atmospheric river forecast system within
a unified forecast system, and advancing next-generation
coupled modeling systems, with the capability of providing
seasonal to short-range atmospheric river forecasts that
include forecast of snow accumulation and other hydrologic
components.
(3) Advancing scientific understanding of the roles of
atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to seasonal precipitation and
probabilistic predictions at subseasonal and seasonal scales.
(4) Developing tools and improved forecast products to
predict periods of active or inactive atmospheric river
landfalls and inland penetration over the United States with a
focus on addressing stakeholder and public needs related to
perceiving, comprehending, and responding to atmospheric river
forecast improvements.
(5) Enhancing the transition of research to operations
through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
testbeds, including the evaluation of physical and social
science, technology, and other research to develop products and
services for implementation and use by relevant stakeholders.
(6) Incorporating into atmospheric river modeling and
forecasting, as appropriate, social, behavioral, risk,
communication, and economic sciences.
(c) Innovative Observations, Data Assimilation, and Modeling.--The
Under Secretary shall ensure the program periodically examines, tests,
and evaluates the value of incorporating innovative observations, data,
and measurements with respect to the improvement of atmospheric river
analysis, modeling, forecasts, predictions, and warnings.
(d) Program Plan.--Not later than 270 days after the date of the
enactment of this Act, the Under Secretary, in consultation with the
Secretary of the Air Force or the Commander of the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve Command, shall develop
a plan that details the specific research, development, data
acquisition, partnerships with the weather industry and academic
partners, and technology transfer activities, as well as corresponding
resources, and timelines, necessary to achieve the goal of the program
under subsection (b). Such plan shall be made available to the public
on release.
(e) Annual Budget for Plan Submittal.--After the development of the
plan pursuant to subsection (d), the Under Secretary shall, not less
frequently than annually, submit to Congress a proposed budget
corresponding with the activities identified in such plan.
(f) Improved Modeling.--In carrying out the program, the Under
Secretary may carry out the following:
(1) Develop, test, and operationalize prototype high-
resolution Atmospheric River Analysis and Forecasting System
models through research and operations partnerships with
institutions of higher education and other partners outside the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
(2) Enhance data assimilation of current and new satellite
and ocean observations that is useful for atmospheric river
analysis and forecasting predictions.
(3) Improve data processing techniques related to
atmospheric river analysis and forecasting predictions.
(4) Use artificial intelligence and machine learning
methods as applicable to atmospheric river analysis and
forecasting predictions.
(5) Ensure the surface and subsurface observations of the
ocean meet the needs of atmospheric river analysis and
forecasting predictions on different time scales.
(6) To the maximum extent practicable, improve or establish
baseline weather monitoring services in areas that have
historically experienced, or are predicted to experience,
atmospheric rivers.
(g) Conduct of Reconnaissance.--The Under Secretary shall acquire
and sustain adequate aircraft, scientific equipment, and personnel to
meet mission requirements of the National Hurricane Operations Plan and
the National Winter Seasons Operation plan, and to carry out the
following:
(1) Ensure atmospheric river air reconnaissance
observations are available throughout the expected seasons of
tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers.
(2) To the maximum extent practicable and in accordance
with paragraph (4), ensure data and information collected are
made available for research and operations purposes.
(3) Participate in research and operations partnerships
that guide flight planning and use research methods to improve
and expand the capabilities and effectiveness of atmospheric
river reconnaissance over time.
(4) Develop data management strategies to ensure that data
and metadata are adequately stewarded, maintained, and
archived.
(5) Undertake such other additional activities as the Under
Secretary, in consultation with the Secretary of the Air Force,
considers appropriate to improve and grow the hurricane hunter
and atmospheric river reconnaissance mission.
(h) Improved Atmospheric River Hazard Communication.--The Under
Secretary may conduct research and development activities to carry out
the following:
(1) As appropriate, develop and refine methods to
categorize the intensity of weather and oceans hazards,
including tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers, on a
quantitative scale and the effectiveness of such scale in
hazard communication.
(2) Develop best practices for communication of atmospheric
river events and hazards across regions of the United States.
(3) Gather information from areas prone to hurricanes and
atmospheric rivers regarding levels of knowledge and
preparedness, including responses to early forecasts and
warnings by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.
(4) Explore strategies and effectiveness of communicating
that hurricane and atmospheric river events are beneficial at
lower intensities versus hazardous at higher intensity.
(i) Definitions.--In this section, the terms ``seasonal'',
``subseasonal'', ``Under Secretary'', and ``weather industry'' have the
meanings given such terms in section 2 of the Weather Research and
Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (15 U.S.C. 8501).
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