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109th Congress                                            Rept. 109-218
                        HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
 1st Session                                                     Part 2

======================================================================



 
                     CHILDREN'S SAFETY ACT OF 2005

                                _______
                                

               September 13, 2005.--Ordered to be printed

                                _______
                                

 Mr. Sensenbrenner, from the Committee on the Judiciary, submitted the 
                               following

                          SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT

                        [To accompany H.R. 3132]

    This supplemental report shows the cost estimate of the 
Congressional Budget Office with respect to the bill (H.R. 
3132), as reported, which was not included in part 1 of the 
report submitted by the Committee on the Judiciary on September 
9, 2005 (H. Rept. 109-218, pt. 1).

                                                September 13, 2005.
Hon. F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr.,
Chairman, Committee on the Judiciary,
House of Representatives, Washington, DC.
    Dear Mr. Chairman: The Congressional Budget Office has 
completed the enclosed cost estimate for H.R. 3132, the 
Children's Safety Act of 2005.
    The CBO staff contacts for this estimate are Mark Grabowicz 
(for federal costs); and Melissa Merrell (for the impact on 
state and local governments).
            Sincerely,
                                       Douglas Holtz-Eakin,
                                                          Director.
    Enclosure.

               CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE COST ESTIMATE

H.R. 3132--Children's Safety Act of 2005

    Summary: H.R. 3132 would place additional requirements on 
states, Indian tribes, and U.S. territories to establish or 
maintain registration programs for persons convicted of sex 
offenses. The bill would authorize the appropriation of such 
sums as necessary for fiscal years 2006 through 2008 for the 
Department of Justice (DOJ) to make grants to cover the costs 
of meeting these new requirements and the costs of meeting 
existing federal requirements for sex offender registration 
programs. (Most states have such programs, and current law 
authorizes the appropriation of such sums as necessary through 
2007 to cover the costs of compliance with those requirements.) 
H.R. 3132 also would direct DOJ to expand certain federal 
programs that identify and track the location of sex offenders. 
Finally, the bill would establish mandatory minimum prison 
sentences for a number of offenses related to sexual abuse.
    Assuming appropriation of the necessary amounts, CBO 
estimates that implementing H.R. 3132 would cost about $500 
million over the 2006-2010 period. Enacting the bill could 
affect direct spending and receipts, but CBO estimates that any 
such effects would not be significant.
    H.R. 3132 would impose an intergovernmental mandate as 
defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) by 
eliminating the ability of states to opt out of federal 
requirements to conduct background checks and make alternative 
placements in the foster care program. CBO estimates that the 
cost of that mandate would not exceed the threshold established 
in UMRA ($62 million in 2005, adjusted annually for inflation).
    The bill also would add additional requirements for state, 
local, and tribal governments for them to receive full funding 
from three existing grant programs. CBO estimates that $120 
million would be available over fiscal years 2006-2010 for 
those governments to meet the new requirements and establish 
new programs, assuming appropriation of the estimated amounts. 
Any additional costs to those governments would be incurred 
voluntarily as a condition of receiving federal aid.
    H.R. 3132 would impose private-sector mandates, as defined 
in UMRA, on individuals who have been arrested or detained for 
federal offenses and on individuals who have been convicted of 
or adjudicated for certain sex offenses. CBO estimates that the 
aggregate direct costs of the mandates would be not be large 
and would fall well below the annual threshold established by 
UMRA for private-sector mandates ($123 million in 2005, 
adjusted annually for inflation).
    Estimated Cost to the Federal Government: The estimated 
budget impact of H.R. 3132 is shown in the following table. The 
cost of this legislation falls within budget function 750 
(administration of justice).

Basis of estimate

    For this estimate, CBO assumes that the bill will be 
enacted near the beginning of fiscal year 2006. CBO estimates 
that implementing H.R. 3132 would cost about $500 million over 
the 2006-2010 period, assuming appropriation of the necessary 
funds. We also estimate that enacting the bill could increase 
both direct spending and receipts, but any such effects would 
not be significant in any year.
            Spending subject to appropriation
    For this estimate, CBO assumes that the necessary amounts 
will be appropriated near the start of each fiscal year and 
that spending will follow the historical spending patterns for 
these or similar activities.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               By fiscal year, in millions of dollars--
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
                                                        2005      2006      2007      2008      2009      2010
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION \1\

Spending under current law for the Federal prison
 system and for programs affected by H.R. 3132:
    Estimated authorization level \2\...............     4,793     4,951     5,104     5,259     5,427     5,600
    Estimated outlays...............................     5,025     5,105     5,140     5,294     5,431     5,591
Proposed changes:
    Grants to states, territories, and tribes:
        Estimated authorization level...............         0        42        16        21         0         0
        Estimated outlays...........................         0        16        24        19        14         7
    Additional DOJ costs:
        Estimated authorization level...............         0        60        98       101        83        85
        Estimated outlays...........................         0        48        85       100        93        85
    Federal prison system costs:
        Estimated authorization level...............         0         *         1         1         1         1
        Estimated outlays...........................         0         *         1         1         1         1
        Total changes:
            Estimated authorization level...........         0       102       115       123        84        86
            Estimated outlays.......................         0        64       110       120       108        94
Spending under H.R. 3132:
    Estimated authorization level...................     4,793     5,053     5,219     5,382     5,511     5,686
    Estimated outlays...............................     5,025     5,169     5,250     5,414     5,539     5,684
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ In addition to the amounts shown above, enacting H.R. 3132 also could affect revenues and direct spending,
  but CBO estimates that any such effects would not be significant in any year.
\2\ The 2005 level is the amount appropriated for that year for the federal prison system and for the programs
  affected by H.R. 3132. For the federal prison system, figures over the 2006-2010 period are CBO's baseline
  estimate for those programs, constructed by adjusting the 2005 level for anticipated inflation. For the
  programs affected by the bill, current law authorizes the appropriation of such sums as are necessary for
  fiscal years 2006 and 2007 for DOJ to make grants to states to comply with federal regulations for sex
  offender registration programs. We estimated those amounts by adjusting the 2005 level for anticipated
  inflation. The 2005 level also includes the amount appropriated for that year for the national DNA database
  and the national sex offender registry, both of which are maintained by DOJ.
Note.--* = less than $500,000.

    Grants to States, Indian Tribes, and Territories. H.R. 3132 
would authorize the appropriation of such sums as necessary for 
fiscal years 2006 through 2008 for DOJ to make grants to 
states, Indian tribes, and U.S. territories to help them meet 
the federal requirements for sex offender registration 
programs. CBO estimates additional grants for this purpose 
would cost about $80 million over the 2006-2010 period. (We 
assume that the necessary appropriations will be made for each 
of fiscal years 2006 through 2008 and that spending would occur 
over the 2006-2010 period.)
    H.R. 3132 would require Indian tribes and U.S. territories 
to establish and maintain sex offender registries and public 
Web sites that provide specific information about sex 
offenders. States are already required to have such registries 
and Web sites; however, a total of about 550 Indian tribes and 
territories would be affected by this provision. CBO estimates 
that each territory and Indian tribe would have to spend, on 
average, about $5,000 to establish a Web site and $5,000 to 
$10,000 to establish the registry, with smaller amounts 
required in subsequent years to maintain these programs. In 
addition, we expect that about 100 of the larger tribes would 
need to hire one person to manage the Web site and registry. 
Assuming that the total annual salary and benefits for those 
positions would be, on average, $50,000, then the cost for the 
additional staff would be about $5 million annually over the 
2006-2008 period. Thus, we estimate that it would cost a total 
of about $25 million over the 2006-2010 period for DOJ to give 
grants to Indian tribes and territories for those additional 
requirements.
    H.R. 3132 would require states, Indian tribes, and U.S. 
territories to verify the residence of certain sex offenders on 
a monthly basis. Based on information from the Center for Sex 
Offender Management, CBO estimates that about 250,000 sex 
offenders nationwide would be affected by this provision. 
Because of the large number of offenders affected, we expect 
that about 40 states would need to hire additional staff to 
handle this duty. Assuming that each of those states would need 
three additional staff members whose annual salary and benefits 
would be, on average, $50,000, we estimate this provision would 
require funding of $23 million over the 2006-2008 period. This 
total also includes amounts necessary to cover the costs of 
postage to contact offenders each month.
    In addition, H.R. 3132 would require states, Indian tribes, 
and U.S. territories to collect DNA samples from sex offenders 
who have not already provided them. According to the National 
Center for Missing and Exploited Children, there are about 
450,000 registered sex offenders nationwide whose whereabouts 
are known. It is estimated that roughly half of those 
individuals have already provided DNA samples. CBO estimates 
that jurisdictions would have to take DNA samples for a total 
of roughly 270,000 individuals (including new offenders) over 
the 2006-2008 period, at a cost of about $100 per sample. Thus, 
we estimate that this provision would cost about $27 million 
over the 2006-2010 period.
    Current law authorizes the appropriation of such sums as 
necessary for fiscal years 2006 and 2007 for DOJ to make grants 
to states to cover the costs of complying with the existing 
federal requirements for sex offender registration programs. In 
2005, the amount appropriated for this purpose was about $5 
million. Because the bill would authorize such sums as 
necessary for 2006 through 2008 to cover the costs for the 
registration programs, CBO estimates that implementing H.R. 
3132 would cost about $5 million in fiscal year 2008 to 
continue to cover states' costs for the current requirements 
for sex offender programs.
    Additional DOJ Costs. H.R. 3132 would direct DOJ to expand 
some existing programs and establish new programs mostly 
related to the identification and tracking of sex offenders. 
CBO estimates that those new responsibilities would cost about 
$410 million over the 2006-2010 period, assuming appropriation 
of the necessary amounts.
    The bill would require the U.S. Marshals Service to assist 
states in finding and apprehending sex offenders who violate 
registration requirements. According to the National Center for 
Missing & Exploited Children, there are about 100,000 sex 
offenders whose whereabouts are unknown to local law 
enforcement. According to the U.S. Marshals Service, in fiscal 
year 2004, the agency received almost 95,000 total warrants and 
resolved close to 90 percent of them. The agency expects that 
it would need to hire 350 new Marshals to take a lead role in 
executing a significant number of additional warrants for 
unregistered sex offenders. CBO estimates that the additional 
Marshals would cost $24 million in fiscal year 2006 and $220 
million over the 2006-2010 period, including costs for space, 
training, supervision, and support staff.
    H.R. 3132 would permit DOJ to collect DNA samples from 
persons arrested, detained, or convicted for violations of 
federal laws. Based on the number of individuals taken into 
federal custody in recent years, we estimate that about 250,000 
persons annually would be affected by this provision. According 
to DOJ, it would cost about $100 to collect, process, and store 
a DNA sample. Thus, CBO estimates that it would require funding 
of $25 million annually to carry out this provision.
    This legislation would direct DOJ to carry out a 
demonstration project over fiscal years 2007 through 2009 to 
evaluate the effectiveness of electronic monitoring devices in 
sex offender management programs. The bill would limit the 
project to no more than 10 jurisdictions at one time. Based on 
the costs reported for similar projects, CBO estimates that it 
would cost about $40 million over the 2007-2009 period to carry 
out demonstration projects in 10 jurisdictions.
    H.R. 3132 would require DOJ to provide state child welfare 
agencies with access to its criminal information databases to 
carry out criminal history checks. Based on the numberof 
background checks related to foster care cases that were conducted by 
states in recent years, we estimate that this provision would cost 
about $5 million annually over the 2006-2010 period.
    This legislation contains several other provisions that 
would increase DOJ spending, including requiring the department 
to develop computer software to assist states, Indian tribes, 
and territories in managing their sex offender registries and 
offering small bonus payments to jurisdictions that comply with 
the bill's provisions promptly. Based on the costs of similar 
software programs and the anticipated rate of compliance with 
the bill's mandates, CBO estimates that implementing those 
provisions would cost about $3 million over the 2006-2010 
period.
    Federal Prison System. H.R. 3132 would establish mandatory 
minimum prison sentences for a wide range of offenses involving 
sexual abuse. The U.S. Sentencing Commission analyzed the 
impact on the federal prison population of the bill's 
provisions that would require minimum prison sentences. Based 
on this analysis, CBO estimates that the longer sentences 
required under the bill would increase the prison population by 
about 550 person-years over the 2006-2010 period. According to 
the Bureau of Prisons, for an increase in the federal prison 
population of this magnitude, it would spend about $7,200 a 
year (at 2005 prices) to house each additional prisoner. CBO 
estimates that the cost to support those additional prisoners 
would total $4 million over the 2006-2010 period.
            Direct spending and receipts
    H.R. 3132 would establish new and increased criminal 
penalties for various crimes involving sexual abuse. Thus, the 
federal government might collect additional fines if the bill 
is enacted. Collections of criminal fines are deposited in the 
Crime Victims Fund and later spent. CBO expects that any 
additional receipts and direct spending would not be 
significant.
    Estimated impact on state, local, and tribal governments: 
H.R. 3132 would impose an intergovernmental mandate on states 
by eliminating their ability to opt out of federal requirements 
to conduct background checks and make alternative placements in 
the foster care program. While all states do background checks 
for placements, nine states do not automatically disqualify 
potential guardians for some offenses, as the bill would 
require. Consequently, the new requirement to make alternative 
placements would be an intergovernmental mandate on state, 
local, and tribal governments as defined in UMRA. States would 
have to either forgo federal payments for placements that do 
not meet the new requirements or find alternative placements 
with guardians who have no disqualifying history. It is unclear 
what the affected states would choose, but CBO estimates that 
the costs of the provision would not exceed the threshold 
established in UMRA ($62 million in 2005, adjusted annually for 
inflation).
    The bill would add new requirements to existing grant 
programs for state, local, and tribal governments and would 
authorize the appropriation of such sums as necessary for 
fiscal years 2006 through 2008 for those governments to meet 
the new requirements. CBO estimates that the cost to those 
governments would be $80 million over the 2006-2010 period for 
the creation of new registries, monthly verification of 
offender addresses, and collection of DNA. Costs would be 
incurred voluntarily as a condition of receiving federal aid.
    Finally, some state governments would benefit from a 
provision to establish pilot programs to electronically monitor 
sex offenders. CBO estimates that $40 million would be 
available over the fiscal years 2007-2009 for those programs.
    Estimated impact on the private sector: H.R. 3132 would 
impose private-sector mandates, as defined in UMRA, on 
individuals who have been arrested or detained for federal 
offenses and on individuals who have been convicted of or 
adjudicated for certain sex offenses. CBO estimates that the 
aggregate direct costs of the mandates would not be large and 
would fall well below the annual threshold established by UMRA 
for private-sector mandates ($123 million in 2005, adjusted 
annually for inflation).
    The bill would authorize the Attorney General to collect 
DNA samples from individuals who have been arrested or detained 
for federal offenses under regulations to be established by the 
Attorney General. The Attorney General also could authorize any 
other agency of the United States that arrests or detains 
individuals or supervises individuals facing charges to carry 
out the collection of such samples. Under current federal law, 
collection of a DNA sample from an individual who has been 
arrested or detained generally requires a finding of probable 
cause. According to information from government sources, the 
regulations established under this bill would most likely 
provide that the samples be collected at no cost to the 
individual. Therefore, CBO estimates that the direct cost of 
the mandate for individuals arrested or detained for federal 
offenses would be negligible, if any.
    The bill also would impose new private-sector mandates by 
expanding the reporting requirements for sex offenders, defined 
in the bill as individuals who have been convicted of or 
adjudicated for certain sex offenses. Currently, certain sex 
offenders are required to register and provide information to 
state law-enforcement agencies. The bill would do the 
following:
           Expand the number of jurisdictions required 
        to maintain a sex offender registry;
           Expand the number of persons required to 
        report;
           Expand the specific information such sex 
        offenders must provide;
           Require sex offenders to register in each 
        jurisdiction where they reside, work, or attend school; 
        and
           Require sex offenders to keep the 
        registration current for at least 20 years.
    In addition, sex offenders would be required to inform each 
jurisdiction with whom they register within five days after 
each change of residence, employment, or student status. Based 
on information from government sources, CBO estimates that the 
incremental cost for sex offenders to comply with the 
additional reporting requirements would be minimal.
    Estimate prepared by: Federal costs: Mark Grabowicz and 
Gregory Waring; Impact on state, local, and tribal governments: 
Melissa Merrell; Impact on the private sector: Paige Piper/
Bach.
    Estimate approved by: Peter H. Fontaine, Deputy Assistant 
Director for Budget Analysis.